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Triangular Martingale

Triangular Martingale

Martingale

Triangular numbers — rapidly rising cumulative exposure.

At a glance

Engine value
marti_grid_triangular
Size at level i
size(i) = base · i(i+1)/2
Family
Martingale — Size grows deeper into — faster recovery, more capital.
Risk band
Extreme risk
Capital profile
total = base × ΣT(i) (grows ≈ n³).
Best for
High-conviction snap-back reversals only, with hard level caps.
Orders per level
One entry order and one take-profit per level.
Ladder cost @ 10 levels
220× base lot
Versus a flat ladder
22.0× the capital
Deepest rung
55.0× base (55.0× the first rung)
Entry orders resting
10 at 10 levels
Break-even bounce
2.50% from the deepest fill (flat ladder: 5.00%)
!
Caution:Capital demand escalates very fast in this : 220× base at 10 levels, and the deepest rung alone is 55.0× base. Cap the level count, keep well beyond the nominal requirement, and arm the .

What this curve is for

Size follows the triangular numbers — 1, 3, 6, 10, 15 — so each level adds one more unit than the level before it. It is routinely mistaken for a moderate because it is not exponential, but the capital grows roughly with the cube of depth, which makes it one of the most expensive curves in the at any realistic depth.

How the sizing rule works

Size at level i is i(i+1)/2. The per-level increment itself grows linearly, so the ladder total grows cubically. Ten levels are already an order of magnitude more expensive than .

LevelPer-order sizeOrdersLevel totalCumulativeEntry priceTake-profit
L11.00×11.00×1.00×99.0099.99
L23.00×13.00×4.00×98.0098.98
L36.00×16.00×10.0×97.0097.97
L410.0×110.0×20.0×96.0096.96
L515.0×115.0×35.0×95.0095.95
L621.0×121.0×56.0×94.0094.94
L728.0×128.0×84.0×93.0093.93
L836.0×136.0×120×92.0092.92
L945.0×145.0×165×91.0091.91
L1055.0×155.0×220×90.0090.90
Reference configuration: 10 levels, 1% apart, 1% target, base price 100, long. Sizes are in base-lot units.

The ladder, as the engine builds it

Below is the 's own ladder and the trading terminal's chart engine, both driven by buildLadderPlan for this . Change the level count, spread or target and the rung prices, sizes, and chart lines recompute exactly as they would in the .

base lot 100 USDT · long · no stop

Ladder shape — Triangular Martingale

LONG · base 100.00 (illustrative) · 10 levels stepping down · 1% apart

Base positionEntry rung (buy)Init target
Opening position & init targets200 USDT
T2
target 2 sell @ 102.00
+2 USDT
T1
target 1 sell @ 101.00
+1 USDT
L0
Market buy · 2 lots @ 100.00
200 USDT

Targets are stacked above the opening buy because a long grid exits higher than it enters.

Entry ladder

Limit buys below the base · L1 nearest, L10 deepest · every amount in USDT

Entry ladder: one row per rung, showing entry and exit price, size, order count, notional, margin, running capital and profit at exit.
LevelSize curveEntry buyUSDTExit sellUSDTFrom base%Sizebase lotsOrdersNotionalUSDTMarginUSDTCum. capitalUSDTProfit at exitUSDT
L12%99.0099.991.00%1.00×11001003001
L25%98.0098.982.00%3.00×13003006003
L311%97.0097.973.00%6.00×16006001,2006
L418%96.0096.964.00%10.0×11,0001,0002,20010
L527%95.0095.955.00%15.0×11,5001,5003,70015
L638%94.0094.946.00%21.0×12,1002,1005,80021
L751%93.0093.937.00%28.0×12,8002,8008,60028
L865%92.0092.928.00%36.0×13,6003,60012,20036
L982%91.0091.919.00%45.0×14,5004,50016,70045
L10100%90.0090.9010.00%55.0×15,5005,50022,20055
Levels 1–10 of 10
1 / 1
Ladder cost 220×Capital 22,200 USDTAvg entry 92.32Cycle profit 223
Loading the chart engine…

What depth costs

cost grows approximately as n³/6. Every level is dramatically more expensive than the last, so depth must be chosen from the capital rather than from a coverage target.

LevelsLadder costDeepest rungEntry ordersCost vs 5 levelsCoverage
5 levels35.0×15.0×51.00×5%
10 levels220×55.0×106.29×10%
20 levels1540×210×2044.0×20%
40 levels11480×820×40328×40%
Ladder cost is Σ of every rung in base-lot units, excluding the opening L0 batch. At a grid size of 100 USDT, the 10-level ladder commits 22,000 USDT of notional at 1× leverage.

Read the cost vs 5 levels column as the escalation test. A flat ladder doubles when the depth doubles; anything materially above that is a whose coverage has to be bought rather than simply configured.

Capital budgetLevels affordableAdverse move covered
10× base3 levels3.0%
25× base4 levels4.0%
50× base5 levels5.0%
100× base7 levels7.0%
250× base10 levels10.0%
How far price can move against the grid before it runs out of rungs, per capital budget, at 1% spacing. This is the question a funding decision actually turns on.

Averaging and recovery

With every rung , the volume-weighted average entry is 92.25 against a base of 100 and a deepest rung of 90.00 — so the average sits 78% of the way down the covered range. Getting back to flat from the bottom therefore needs a 2.50% , against 5.00% for a flat ladder of the same depth — 2.50% less work.

ExcursionLevels filledDeployedAverage entryMarkUnrealisedBounce to flat
Shallow dipL1–L310.0×97.5097.00-0.05×0.52%
Half the ladder fillsL1–L535.0×96.0095.00-0.36×1.05%
Full ladderL1–L10220×92.2590.00-5.26×2.50%
Reference configuration: 10 levels, 1% apart, 1% target, base price 100, long. Sizes are in base-lot units. Deterministic arithmetic, not a simulation: no assumption is made about how price reached each depth.

Size equals the i-th triangular number (1, 3, 6, 10, 15…). capital grows roughly with n³, so it escalates faster than most people expect from a polynomial .

Where the exposure sits

Held by the shallowest quarter
4.5% of total size
Held by the deepest quarter
61.8% of total size
Unrealised loss at full fill
5.26× base (2.4% of deployed capital)
Profit if every rung books its target
2.20× base
One shallow cycle, against reserved capital
0.5 bps

The last row is the metric that separates modes. Profit for a full cycle is the target of deployed capital in every , so it cannot discriminate. What differs is how much capital has to sit reserved to earn one shallow cycle: this mode 220× base to collect 0.5 bps of it when the first rung completes.

Which market pays this curve

High-conviction snap-back reversals with a hard level cap, actively supervised. There is no regime where a cubic is a sensible default.

Size equals the i-th triangular number (1, 3, 6, 10, 15, …). : grows faster than quadratic-, so recovery is quick but capital demand escalates sharply.

The shape of the risk

Convex and easy to underestimate. The specific danger is category error: operators file it mentally next to "polynomial, therefore moderate" when its cost profile is closer to Fibonacci and geometric.

ℹ
Note:Frequently mistaken for a moderate because it is not exponential. At 15 levels it is comparable to Fibonacci.

Run it over real history

This is the product's grid backtester, not a summary of one. It fetches public candles for the you pick, rebuilds the ladder on the first candle of the , then applies the engine's own fill, take-profit, and stop-loss rules bar by bar. The caveat block inside the is part of the output — read it before trusting a number.

Instrument

BTCUSD

delta-india

Triangular Martingale · 10 levels @ 1% · target 1% · 100 USDT / level · 1× · long · no stop

What this does not model

  • Exact intrabar ticks. Bullish/doji candles use open → low → high → close; bearish candles use open → high → low → close. Finer timeframes reduce sensitivity to this deterministic assumption.
  • Queue position. Limit orders are assumed filled when touched, which flatters a maker grid in fast markets.
  • Margin rejection and liquidation. Deep rungs fill here even if the account could not fund them — check the capital requirement.
  • Slippage and funding. Only the fee you set above is charged; funding, borrow and slippage are absent.

Run the ladder over real history

The grid is rebuilt anchored on the first candle of the window, then the engine's own fill, exit, refill and stop-loss rules are applied bar by bar. You get the real fill sequence for this configuration on this instrument.

Measured against other modes

First the arithmetic, then the market. The below is computed from the size curves alone; the underneath replays every one of those ladders over the same real candle , with grid_mode as the only variable.

ModeLadder costDeepest rungBreak-even bounceEntry ordersShallow cycle
Triangular Martingale (this mode)220×55.0×2.50%100.5 bps
Fixed10.0×1.00×5.00%1010.0 bps
Capped Linear40.0×5.00×4.03%102.5 bps
Linear Martingale55.0×10.0×2.38%551.8 bps
Exponential Martingale2046×1024×1.10%100.1 bps
Reference configuration: 10 levels, 1% apart, 1% target, base price 100, long. Sizes are in base-lot units. Peers are chosen from this mode's own direction plus the flat baseline, so the comparison is meaningful rather than decorative.

Nothing is precomputed here. Press run and the backtester fetches one candle window and replays 5 ladders across it — identical settings, identical bars, grid_mode as the only difference.

When to use it

  • High-conviction snap-back reversals with a hard level cap and active supervision.
  • You have measured the requirement in the backtester and funded it explicitly.

When to avoid it

  • Anything unattended.
  • Deep ladders — the cost is punitive past about ten levels.
  • Any account where the full ladder is not comfortably fundable.

Tuning

  • Depth is the only meaningful dial, and it should be . If you want this with a ceiling, use .
  • Power with p between 1.5 and 2 gives a similar family of shapes with a continuous control instead of a sequence.

Running it in production

  • early on depth: by the time half the ladder has , the remaining half costs several times as much as everything spent so far.
  • Watch the deepest level, not the P&L. Depth is the leading indicator; P&L is the lagging one.
  • peak committed against the account, weekly. A growth that has never been deep has never been tested.
  • Treat every level increase as a capital : adding levels to a growth is not a linear cost.

How it fails

  1. 1
    Cubic surprise
    Depth increases as incremental turn out to multiply the requirement. Always re-read the capital .
  2. 2
    Funding wall
    As with exponential, a deep order stops the averaging exactly when it was supposed to matter.

Claims worth correcting

“It is polynomial, so it is safer than geometric.”

Asymptotically yes; at the depths people actually run, triangular is comparable to Fibonacci and far above linear.

Interaction with the rest of the configuration

  • Spread sets how fast the ladder consumes depth. Widening it buys coverage for the same level count at the cost of fewer .
  • Target sets what each cycle books. Below -trip fees plus slippage, a grid is a fee generator regardless of the .
  • The is the only bound on the tail. Without it, the 's worst case is whatever the market does, not what you planned.

Questions this mode raises

  1. 1
    Where does the shape come from?
    It is the running sum of a linear increment — the same sequence as the cost of , used here as the per-level size. That is precisely why the totals become cubic.

Where these numbers come from

  • Sizes and capital: levelMultiplier / gridModeCurve in lib/grid/gridModes.ts, from grid_modes.hpp and the Python engine's lot calculator.
  • Rung and exit prices, , init targets and the stop line: buildLadderPlan — the same builder the and use.
  • Backtest , cycles and P&L: runBacktest / runBacktestSweep over public broker candles, applying the engine's fill, exit, and stop rules.
  • Price charts: the trading terminal's chart engine, with the ladder drawn through its own price-line API.
!
Caution:A backtest is evidence about one , not a . Fees are charged at the rate you set; slippage, funding, , margin rejection and are not modelled. For a growth especially, a profitable window mostly tells you the window did not contain the trend that would have tested it.

Related

  • 1.Grid Modes — Overview — The full taxonomy and how to choose
  • 2.Martingale family — What every curve in this family has in common
  • 3.Capital Allocation — Sizing an account to a Triangular Martingale ladder
  • 4.Stop Loss — Bounding this curve's tail
  • 5.Reading the Ladder Plan — Verifying the curve before deploying
  • 6.Grid Structure — Levels, init batch and base size

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