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Geometric Martingale
MartingaleGeometric ratio scaling — tunable aggression via ratio r.
At a glance
marti_grid_geometricsize(i) = base · rⁱ (r = 1.5)What this curve is for
Exponential growth with a dial. Size is base × rⁱ, so r is a single, legible control over aggression: r = 2 reproduces doubling, r between 1.2 and 1.6 produces a that recovers noticeably faster than linear while remaining fundable. This is the to use when you intend to tune a curve rather than pick one.
How the sizing rule works
Every rung is r times the previous one, so the ladder is a geometric series and its total cost is base × (rⁿ⁺¹ − 1)/(r − 1). changes in r move that total a great deal — the sensitivity is the , and the trap.
| Level | Per-order size | Orders | Level total | Cumulative | Entry price | Take-profit |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| L1 | 1.50× | 1 | 1.50× | 1.50× | 99.00 | 99.99 |
| L2 | 2.25× | 1 | 2.25× | 3.75× | 98.00 | 98.98 |
| L3 | 3.38× | 1 | 3.38× | 7.13× | 97.00 | 97.97 |
| L4 | 5.06× | 1 | 5.06× | 12.2× | 96.00 | 96.96 |
| L5 | 7.59× | 1 | 7.59× | 19.8× | 95.00 | 95.95 |
| L6 | 11.4× | 1 | 11.4× | 31.2× | 94.00 | 94.94 |
| L7 | 17.1× | 1 | 17.1× | 48.3× | 93.00 | 93.93 |
| L8 | 25.6× | 1 | 25.6× | 73.9× | 92.00 | 92.92 |
| L9 | 38.4× | 1 | 38.4× | 112× | 91.00 | 91.91 |
| L10 | 57.7× | 1 | 57.7× | 170× | 90.00 | 90.90 |
The ladder, as the engine builds it
Below is the 's own ladder and the trading terminal's chart engine, both driven by buildLadderPlan for this . Change the level count, spread or target and the rung prices, sizes, and chart lines recompute exactly as they would in the .
Ladder shape — Geometric Martingale
LONG · base 100.00 (illustrative) · 10 levels stepping down · 1% apart
Targets are stacked above the opening buy because a long grid exits higher than it enters.
Entry ladder
Limit buys below the base · L1 nearest, L10 deepest · every amount in USDT
| Level | Size curve | Entry buyUSDT | Exit sellUSDT | From base% | Sizebase lots | Orders | NotionalUSDT | MarginUSDT | Cum. capitalUSDT | Profit at exitUSDT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| L1 | 3% | 99.00 | 99.99 | 1.00% | 1.50× | 1 | 150 | 150 | 350 | 1.5 |
| L2 | 4% | 98.00 | 98.98 | 2.00% | 2.25× | 1 | 225 | 225 | 575 | 2.25 |
| L3 | 6% | 97.00 | 97.97 | 3.00% | 3.38× | 1 | 338 | 338 | 913 | 3.38 |
| L4 | 9% | 96.00 | 96.96 | 4.00% | 5.06× | 1 | 506 | 506 | 1,419 | 5.06 |
| L5 | 13% | 95.00 | 95.95 | 5.00% | 7.59× | 1 | 759 | 759 | 2,178 | 7.59 |
| L6 | 20% | 94.00 | 94.94 | 6.00% | 11.4× | 1 | 1,139 | 1,139 | 3,317 | 11.39 |
| L7 | 30% | 93.00 | 93.93 | 7.00% | 17.1× | 1 | 1,709 | 1,709 | 5,026 | 17.09 |
| L8 | 44% | 92.00 | 92.92 | 8.00% | 25.6× | 1 | 2,563 | 2,563 | 7,589 | 25.63 |
| L9 | 67% | 91.00 | 91.91 | 9.00% | 38.4× | 1 | 3,844 | 3,844 | 11,433 | 38.44 |
| L10 | 100% | 90.00 | 90.90 | 10.00% | 57.7× | 1 | 5,767 | 5,767 | 17,200 | 57.67 |
What depth costs
Geometric in depth. Raising r from 1.5 to 1.8 roughly doubles the ten-level cost; raising it to 2 the into . Always re-read the capital after changing r, never assume the previous funding still applies.
| Levels | Ladder cost | Deepest rung | Entry orders | Cost vs 5 levels | Coverage |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 levels | 19.8× | 7.59× | 5 | 1.00× | 5% |
| 10 levels | 170× | 57.7× | 10 | 8.59× | 10% |
| 20 levels | 9973× | 3325× | 20 | 504× | 20% |
| 40 levels | 33171994× | 11057332× | 40 | 1676941× | 40% |
Read the cost vs 5 levels column as the escalation test. A flat ladder doubles when the depth doubles; anything materially above that is a whose coverage has to be bought rather than simply configured.
| Capital budget | Levels affordable | Adverse move covered |
|---|---|---|
| 10× base | 3 levels | 3.0% |
| 25× base | 5 levels | 5.0% |
| 50× base | 7 levels | 7.0% |
| 100× base | 8 levels | 8.0% |
| 250× base | 10 levels | 10.0% |
Averaging and recovery
With every rung , the volume-weighted average entry is 91.82 against a base of 100 and a deepest rung of 90.00 — so the average sits 82% of the way down the covered range. Getting back to flat from the bottom therefore needs a 2.03% , against 5.00% for a flat ladder of the same depth — 2.97% less work.
| Excursion | Levels filled | Deployed | Average entry | Mark | Unrealised | Bounce to flat |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shallow dip | L1–L3 | 7.13× | 97.74 | 97.00 | -0.05× | 0.76% |
| Half the ladder fills | L1–L5 | 19.8× | 96.24 | 95.00 | -0.25× | 1.31% |
| Full ladder | L1–L10 | 170× | 91.82 | 90.00 | -3.30× | 2.03% |
A constant ratio r between rungs, so the is exponential with a dial. r = 2 reproduces doubling; r between 1.2 and 1.8 gives a controllable middle ground.
Where the exposure sits
The last row is the metric that separates modes. Profit for a full cycle is the target of deployed capital in every , so it cannot discriminate. What differs is how much capital has to sit reserved to earn one shallow cycle: this mode 170× base to collect 0.9 bps of it when the first rung completes.
Which market pays this curve
Any mean-reverting you have measured. Because r is continuous, the adapts to the instrument rather than the other way : a low-volatility pair can carry a higher r at the same depth than a violent one.
Each level multiplies by a constant ratio r. r=2 is exponential; r between 1.2 and 1.8 gives a controllable middle ground so you dial recovery speed against capital risk precisely.
The shape of the risk
The same convex tail as exponential, scaled by r. The operational risk is unique to this : r is easy to nudge, and a change that looks cosmetic on the chart is a change to the worst case.
Run it over real history
This is the product's grid backtester, not a summary of one. It fetches public candles for the you pick, rebuilds the ladder on the first candle of the , then applies the engine's own fill, take-profit, and stop-loss rules bar by bar. The caveat block inside the is part of the output — read it before trusting a number.
Instrument
BTCUSD
delta-india
Geometric Martingale · 10 levels @ 1% · target 1% · 100 USDT / level · 1× · long · no stop
What this does not model
- Exact intrabar ticks. Bullish/doji candles use open → low → high → close; bearish candles use open → high → low → close. Finer timeframes reduce sensitivity to this deterministic assumption.
- Queue position. Limit orders are assumed filled when touched, which flatters a maker grid in fast markets.
- Margin rejection and liquidation. Deep rungs fill here even if the account could not fund them — check the capital requirement.
- Slippage and funding. Only the fee you set above is charged; funding, borrow and slippage are absent.
Run the ladder over real history
The grid is rebuilt anchored on the first candle of the window, then the engine's own fill, exit, refill and stop-loss rules are applied bar by bar. You get the real fill sequence for this configuration on this instrument.
Measured against other modes
First the arithmetic, then the market. The below is computed from the size curves alone; the underneath replays every one of those ladders over the same real candle , with grid_mode as the only variable.
| Mode | Ladder cost | Deepest rung | Break-even bounce | Entry orders | Shallow cycle |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Geometric Martingale (this mode) | 170× | 57.7× | 2.03% | 10 | 0.9 bps |
| Fixed | 10.0× | 1.00× | 5.00% | 10 | 10.0 bps |
| Capped Linear | 40.0× | 5.00× | 4.03% | 10 | 2.5 bps |
| Linear Martingale | 55.0× | 10.0× | 2.38% | 55 | 1.8 bps |
| Exponential Martingale | 2046× | 1024× | 1.10% | 10 | 0.1 bps |
Nothing is precomputed here. Press run and the backtester fetches one candle window and replays 5 ladders across it — identical settings, identical bars, grid_mode as the only difference.
When to use it
- You want exponential-style recovery but softer than 2×.
- You are fitting a to measured behaviour on a specific .
- You need one parameter to express aggression in a review or a mandate.
When to avoid it
- You have not checked the cost at your level count — changes in r move it a lot.
- The will be edited by people who will not re-read the capital after touching r.
Tuning
- Move r in steps of 0.1 and re-read the ladder cost each time. Treat 1.8 and above as exponential in all but name.
- If you want the ratio behaviour with a hard ceiling, use and set the cap instead.
- Depth and r trade off directly: a higher r with fewer levels can be safer than a lower r with many.
This is parametric. The and the settings show only the dial(s) it actually uses, and changing one is a structural — the resting ladder is cancelled and re-placed at the new sizes.
Running it in production
- Record r alongside the in every . The mode name alone does not describe the .
- on peak , because r makes the relationship between depth and exposure non-obvious at a glance.
- Watch the deepest level, not the P&L. Depth is the leading indicator; P&L is the lagging one.
- peak committed against the account, weekly. A growth that has never been deep has never been tested.
- Treat every level increase as a capital : adding levels to a growth is not a linear cost.
How it fails
- 1Silent re-aggressionAn raises r modestly and the funding is not revisited. The ladder is now a different with the same name.
- 2Tail at r ≥ 2At r = 2 this is , including its funding wall. Nothing about the label warns you.
Claims worth correcting
“A ratio below 2 is safe.”
It is bounded, not safe. r = 1.5 at twenty levels is already a very multiple of base; safety comes from the cost and the stop, not from r being under 2.
Interaction with the rest of the configuration
- Changing r is a structural : the resting ladder is cancelled and re-placed at the new sizes.
- Spread sets how fast the ladder consumes depth. Widening it buys coverage for the same level count at the cost of fewer .
- Target sets what each cycle books. Below -trip fees plus slippage, a grid is a fee generator regardless of the .
- The is the only bound on the tail. Without it, the 's worst case is whatever the market does, not what you planned.
Questions this mode raises
- 1What r should I start from?Start at 1.2–1.3, , and raise only if the measured recovery benefit justifies the measured capital increase. The below shows you both of that trade on real candles.
- 2How is this different from `geometric_ratio`?It is not — `geometric_ratio` is an alias that exists so dashboards can group the under the .
Where these numbers come from
- Sizes and capital:
levelMultiplier/gridModeCurveinlib/grid/gridModes.ts, fromgrid_modes.hppand the Python engine's lot calculator. - Rung and exit prices, , init targets and the stop line:
buildLadderPlan— the same builder the and use. - Backtest , cycles and P&L:
runBacktest/runBacktestSweepover public broker candles, applying the engine's fill, exit, and stop rules. - Price charts: the trading terminal's chart engine, with the ladder drawn through its own price-line API.
Related
- 1.Grid Modes — Overview — The full taxonomy and how to choose
- 2.Martingale family — What every curve in this family has in common
- 3.Capital Allocation — Sizing an account to a Geometric Martingale ladder
- 4.Stop Loss — Bounding this curve's tail
- 5.Reading the Ladder Plan — Verifying the curve before deploying
- 6.Grid Structure — Levels, init batch and base size
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