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Square-Root Martingale
MartingaleGentle, decelerating accumulation.
At a glance
marti_grid_sqrtsize(i) = base · √iWhat this curve is for
Decelerating growth: size is √i, so the ladder gets heavier with depth but by progressively less. It is the growth that remains affordable at depths where every other growth curve has become unfundable, which makes it the practical choice for wide grids that still want some averaging.
How the sizing rule works
Size at level i is the of i. The gap between levels 9 and 10 is a fraction of the gap between 1 and 2, so the flattens as it deepens — the opposite of the behaviour that makes martingale dangerous.
| Level | Per-order size | Orders | Level total | Cumulative | Entry price | Take-profit |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| L1 | 1.00× | 1 | 1.00× | 1.00× | 99.00 | 99.99 |
| L2 | 1.41× | 1 | 1.41× | 2.41× | 98.00 | 98.98 |
| L3 | 1.73× | 1 | 1.73× | 4.15× | 97.00 | 97.97 |
| L4 | 2.00× | 1 | 2.00× | 6.15× | 96.00 | 96.96 |
| L5 | 2.24× | 1 | 2.24× | 8.38× | 95.00 | 95.95 |
| L6 | 2.45× | 1 | 2.45× | 10.8× | 94.00 | 94.94 |
| L7 | 2.65× | 1 | 2.65× | 13.5× | 93.00 | 93.93 |
| L8 | 2.83× | 1 | 2.83× | 16.3× | 92.00 | 92.92 |
| L9 | 3.00× | 1 | 3.00× | 19.3× | 91.00 | 91.91 |
| L10 | 3.16× | 1 | 3.16× | 22.5× | 90.00 | 90.90 |
The ladder, as the engine builds it
Below is the 's own ladder and the trading terminal's chart engine, both driven by buildLadderPlan for this . Change the level count, spread or target and the rung prices, sizes, and chart lines recompute exactly as they would in the .
Ladder shape — Square-Root Martingale
LONG · base 100.00 (illustrative) · 10 levels stepping down · 1% apart
Targets are stacked above the opening buy because a long grid exits higher than it enters.
Entry ladder
Limit buys below the base · L1 nearest, L10 deepest · every amount in USDT
| Level | Size curve | Entry buyUSDT | Exit sellUSDT | From base% | Sizebase lots | Orders | NotionalUSDT | MarginUSDT | Cum. capitalUSDT | Profit at exitUSDT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| L1 | 32% | 99.00 | 99.99 | 1.00% | 1.00× | 1 | 100 | 100 | 300 | 1 |
| L2 | 45% | 98.00 | 98.98 | 2.00% | 1.41× | 1 | 141 | 141 | 441 | 1.41 |
| L3 | 55% | 97.00 | 97.97 | 3.00% | 1.73× | 1 | 173 | 173 | 615 | 1.73 |
| L4 | 63% | 96.00 | 96.96 | 4.00% | 2.00× | 1 | 200 | 200 | 815 | 2 |
| L5 | 71% | 95.00 | 95.95 | 5.00% | 2.24× | 1 | 224 | 224 | 1,038 | 2.24 |
| L6 | 77% | 94.00 | 94.94 | 6.00% | 2.45× | 1 | 245 | 245 | 1,283 | 2.45 |
| L7 | 84% | 93.00 | 93.93 | 7.00% | 2.65× | 1 | 265 | 265 | 1,548 | 2.65 |
| L8 | 89% | 92.00 | 92.92 | 8.00% | 2.83× | 1 | 283 | 283 | 1,831 | 2.83 |
| L9 | 95% | 91.00 | 91.91 | 9.00% | 3.00× | 1 | 300 | 300 | 2,131 | 3 |
| L10 | 100% | 90.00 | 90.90 | 10.00% | 3.16× | 1 | 316 | 316 | 2,447 | 3.16 |
What depth costs
Sub-linear in the multiplier sense: ten levels cost roughly twenty-two times base, and forty levels remain within reach of a normal account. This is the only martingale variant that is genuinely deployable at forty-plus levels.
| Levels | Ladder cost | Deepest rung | Entry orders | Cost vs 5 levels | Coverage |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 levels | 8.38× | 2.24× | 5 | 1.00× | 5% |
| 10 levels | 22.5× | 3.16× | 10 | 2.68× | 10% |
| 20 levels | 61.7× | 4.47× | 20 | 7.36× | 20% |
| 40 levels | 172× | 6.32× | 40 | 20.5× | 40% |
Read the cost vs 5 levels column as the escalation test. A flat ladder doubles when the depth doubles; anything materially above that is a whose coverage has to be bought rather than simply configured.
| Capital budget | Levels affordable | Adverse move covered |
|---|---|---|
| 10× base | 5 levels | 5.0% |
| 25× base | 10 levels | 10.0% |
| 50× base | 17 levels | 17.0% |
| 100× base | 27 levels | 27.0% |
| 250× base | 51 levels | 51.0% |
Averaging and recovery
With every rung , the volume-weighted average entry is 93.65 against a base of 100 and a deepest rung of 90.00 — so the average sits 63% of the way down the covered range. Getting back to flat from the bottom therefore needs a 4.06% , against 5.00% for a flat ladder of the same depth — 0.94% less work.
| Excursion | Levels filled | Deployed | Average entry | Mark | Unrealised | Bounce to flat |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shallow dip | L1–L3 | 4.15× | 97.82 | 97.00 | -0.03× | 0.85% |
| Half the ladder fills | L1–L5 | 8.38× | 96.64 | 95.00 | -0.14× | 1.72% |
| Full ladder | L1–L10 | 22.5× | 93.65 | 90.00 | -0.86× | 4.06% |
Growth decelerates: the gap between level 9 and 10 is far smaller than between 1 and 2. Capital is sub-linear in the multiplier sense — ten levels cost only about 22× base.
Where the exposure sits
The last row is the metric that separates modes. Profit for a full cycle is the target of deployed capital in every , so it cannot discriminate. What differs is how much capital has to sit reserved to earn one shallow cycle: this mode 22.5× base to collect 4.5 bps of it when the first rung completes.
Which market pays this curve
Low-to-moderate volatility instruments and wide ladders. Anywhere the realistic adverse move is relative to the spread, square-root growth buys depth without buying convexity.
Grows with the of depth, so it adds size but decelerates. A conservative way to average down: more than , far less than linear. Floored at 1 lot.
The shape of the risk
Mild. The tail is thin because the deepest rungs are only modestly larger than the shallowest, so the failure reverts to coverage exhaustion rather than capital escalation.
Run it over real history
This is the product's grid backtester, not a summary of one. It fetches public candles for the you pick, rebuilds the ladder on the first candle of the , then applies the engine's own fill, take-profit, and stop-loss rules bar by bar. The caveat block inside the is part of the output — read it before trusting a number.
Instrument
BTCUSD
delta-india
Square-Root Martingale · 10 levels @ 1% · target 1% · 100 USDT / level · 1× · long · no stop
What this does not model
- Exact intrabar ticks. Bullish/doji candles use open → low → high → close; bearish candles use open → high → low → close. Finer timeframes reduce sensitivity to this deterministic assumption.
- Queue position. Limit orders are assumed filled when touched, which flatters a maker grid in fast markets.
- Margin rejection and liquidation. Deep rungs fill here even if the account could not fund them — check the capital requirement.
- Slippage and funding. Only the fee you set above is charged; funding, borrow and slippage are absent.
Run the ladder over real history
The grid is rebuilt anchored on the first candle of the window, then the engine's own fill, exit, refill and stop-loss rules are applied bar by bar. You get the real fill sequence for this configuration on this instrument.
Measured against other modes
First the arithmetic, then the market. The below is computed from the size curves alone; the underneath replays every one of those ladders over the same real candle , with grid_mode as the only variable.
| Mode | Ladder cost | Deepest rung | Break-even bounce | Entry orders | Shallow cycle |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Square-Root Martingale (this mode) | 22.5× | 3.16× | 4.06% | 10 | 4.5 bps |
| Fixed | 10.0× | 1.00× | 5.00% | 10 | 10.0 bps |
| Capped Linear | 40.0× | 5.00× | 4.03% | 10 | 2.5 bps |
| Linear Martingale | 55.0× | 10.0× | 2.38% | 55 | 1.8 bps |
| Exponential Martingale | 2046× | 1024× | 1.10% | 10 | 0.1 bps |
Nothing is precomputed here. Press run and the backtester fetches one candle window and replays 5 ladders across it — identical settings, identical bars, grid_mode as the only difference.
When to use it
- Risk-averse mean-reversion where you still want the average entry to move.
- Deep ladders (20–60 levels) where any steeper would be unaffordable.
- Low-volatility instruments whose pullbacks are shallow but frequent.
When to avoid it
- You need recovery from a deep — the is too flat to deliver it.
- Depth is shallow, where the difference from is negligible.
Tuning
- Because capital is mild, spend the budget on depth: square-root at 40 levels is a very different (and often better) than square-root at 10.
- If you want more recovery at the same affordability, power with p ≈ 1.2 is the next step up.
Running it in production
- Track coverage rather than exposure — this fails by running out of range, not out of money.
- peak committed against the account, weekly. A growth that has never been deep has never been tested.
- Treat every level increase as a capital : adding levels to a growth is not a linear cost.
How it fails
- 1Coverage exhaustionThe same failure as : price leaves the covered range and the ladder holds. Deep configurations are the mitigation, and this can afford them.
- 2Under-differentiation at shallow depthAt five levels the is nearly flat, so the operational of a growth buys almost nothing. Either go deeper or use .
Claims worth correcting
“Square-root martingale is a weak martingale.”
It is a different trade: it converts martingale's capital convexity into depth. At equal budget it usually covers a far larger adverse move than does.
Interaction with the rest of the configuration
- Pairs well with trailing: light deep rungs make shifts cheap.
- Spread sets how fast the ladder consumes depth. Widening it buys coverage for the same level count at the cost of fewer .
- Target sets what each cycle books. Below -trip fees plus slippage, a grid is a fee generator regardless of the .
- The is the only bound on the tail. Without it, the 's worst case is whatever the market does, not what you planned.
Questions this mode raises
- 1Is this the safest growth mode?Among the uncapped growth curves, yes by a wide margin. is comparable and gives you an explicit ceiling instead of a decelerating formula.
Where these numbers come from
- Sizes and capital:
levelMultiplier/gridModeCurveinlib/grid/gridModes.ts, fromgrid_modes.hppand the Python engine's lot calculator. - Rung and exit prices, , init targets and the stop line:
buildLadderPlan— the same builder the and use. - Backtest , cycles and P&L:
runBacktest/runBacktestSweepover public broker candles, applying the engine's fill, exit, and stop rules. - Price charts: the trading terminal's chart engine, with the ladder drawn through its own price-line API.
Related
- 1.Grid Modes — Overview — The full taxonomy and how to choose
- 2.Martingale family — What every curve in this family has in common
- 3.Capital Allocation — Sizing an account to a Square-Root Martingale ladder
- 4.Stop Loss — Bounding this curve's tail
- 5.Reading the Ladder Plan — Verifying the curve before deploying
- 6.Grid Structure — Levels, init batch and base size
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