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Geometric Decay
Anti-MartingaleTunable shrink rate via ratio r.
At a glance
anti_marti_geometricsize(i) = base / rⁱ (r = 1.5)What this curve is for
Decay with a dial: size is divided by rⁱ, so r sets the de-risking rate precisely. It is the decay counterpart to and the choice when you want to express "reduce exposure at this exact rate" rather than pick a named taper.
How the sizing rule works
Size at level i is r⁻ⁱ. With r near 1 the taper is almost flat; as r approaches 2 the converges on halving decay. Total ladder cost is bounded by base × r/(r − 1) regardless of depth.
| Level | Per-order size | Orders | Level total | Cumulative | Entry price | Take-profit |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| L1 | 0.67× | 1 | 0.67× | 0.67× | 99.00 | 99.99 |
| L2 | 0.44× | 1 | 0.44× | 1.11× | 98.00 | 98.98 |
| L3 | 0.30× | 1 | 0.30× | 1.41× | 97.00 | 97.97 |
| L4 | 0.20× | 1 | 0.20× | 1.60× | 96.00 | 96.96 |
| L5 | 0.13× | 1 | 0.13× | 1.74× | 95.00 | 95.95 |
| L6 | 0.09× | 1 | 0.09× | 1.82× | 94.00 | 94.94 |
| L7 | 0.06× | 1 | 0.06× | 1.88× | 93.00 | 93.93 |
| L8 | 0.04× | 1 | 0.04× | 1.92× | 92.00 | 92.92 |
| L9 | 0.03× | 1 | 0.03× | 1.95× | 91.00 | 91.91 |
| L10 | 0.02× | 1 | 0.02× | 1.97× | 90.00 | 90.90 |
The ladder, as the engine builds it
Below is the 's own ladder and the trading terminal's chart engine, both driven by buildLadderPlan for this . Change the level count, spread or target and the rung prices, sizes, and chart lines recompute exactly as they would in the .
Ladder shape — Geometric Decay
LONG · base 100.00 (illustrative) · 10 levels stepping down · 1% apart
Targets are stacked above the opening buy because a long grid exits higher than it enters.
Entry ladder
Limit buys below the base · L1 nearest, L10 deepest · every amount in USDT
| Level | Size curve | Entry buyUSDT | Exit sellUSDT | From base% | Sizebase lots | Orders | NotionalUSDT | MarginUSDT | Cum. capitalUSDT | Profit at exitUSDT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| L1 | 100% | 99.00 | 99.99 | 1.00% | 0.667× | 1 | 66.67 | 66.67 | 267 | 0.67 |
| L2 | 67% | 98.00 | 98.98 | 2.00% | 0.444× | 1 | 44.44 | 44.44 | 311 | 0.44 |
| L3 | 44% | 97.00 | 97.97 | 3.00% | 0.296× | 1 | 29.63 | 29.63 | 341 | 0.3 |
| L4 | 30% | 96.00 | 96.96 | 4.00% | 0.198× | 1 | 19.75 | 19.75 | 360 | 0.2 |
| L5 | 20% | 95.00 | 95.95 | 5.00% | 0.132× | 1 | 13.17 | 13.17 | 374 | 0.13 |
| L6 | 13% | 94.00 | 94.94 | 6.00% | 0.088× | 1 | 8.78 | 8.78 | 382 | 0.09 |
| L7 | 9% | 93.00 | 93.93 | 7.00% | 0.059× | 1 | 5.85 | 5.85 | 388 | 0.06 |
| L8 | 6% | 92.00 | 92.92 | 8.00% | 0.039× | 1 | 3.9 | 3.9 | 392 | 0.04 |
| L9 | 4% | 91.00 | 91.91 | 9.00% | 0.026× | 1 | 2.6 | 2.6 | 395 | 0.03 |
| L10 | 3% | 90.00 | 90.90 | 10.00% | 0.017× | 1 | 1.73 | 1.73 | 397 | 0.02 |
What depth costs
Bounded by the geometric sum, so extra levels are nearly free. Capital planning is a single closed-form , which makes this the easiest decay to reason about at arbitrary depth.
| Levels | Ladder cost | Deepest rung | Entry orders | Cost vs 5 levels | Coverage |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 levels | 1.74× | 0.13× | 5 | 1.00× | 5% |
| 10 levels | 1.97× | 0.02× | 10 | 1.13× | 10% |
| 20 levels | 2.00× | 0.00× | 20 | 1.15× | 20% |
| 40 levels | 2.00× | 0.00× | 40 | 1.15× | 40% |
Read the cost vs 5 levels column as the escalation test. A flat ladder doubles when the depth doubles; anything materially above that is a whose coverage has to be bought rather than simply configured.
| Capital budget | Levels affordable | Adverse move covered |
|---|---|---|
| 10× base | 200 levels | 200.0% |
| 25× base | 200 levels | 200.0% |
| 50× base | 200 levels | 200.0% |
| 100× base | 200 levels | 200.0% |
| 250× base | 200 levels | 200.0% |
Averaging and recovery
With every rung , the volume-weighted average entry is 97.18 against a base of 100 and a deepest rung of 90.00 — so the average sits 28% of the way down the covered range. Getting back to flat from the bottom therefore needs a 7.97% , against 5.00% for a flat ladder of the same depth — 2.97% more work.
| Excursion | Levels filled | Deployed | Average entry | Mark | Unrealised | Bounce to flat |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shallow dip | L1–L3 | 1.41× | 98.26 | 97.00 | -0.02× | 1.30% |
| Half the ladder fills | L1–L5 | 1.74× | 97.76 | 95.00 | -0.05× | 2.90% |
| Full ladder | L1–L10 | 1.97× | 97.18 | 90.00 | -0.14× | 7.97% |
Divides by a constant ratio each level, so the decay rate is a dial: r near 1 decays slowly, larger r approaches the halving .
Where the exposure sits
The last row is the metric that separates modes. Profit for a full cycle is the target of deployed capital in every , so it cannot discriminate. What differs is how much capital has to sit reserved to earn one shallow cycle: this mode 1.97× base to collect 33.9 bps of it when the first rung completes.
Which market pays this curve
Trends where you want a specific, auditable de-risking profile — for instance matching the taper to an 's historical continuation probability.
Divides by a constant ratio each level. r closer to 1 decays slowly, larger r decays fast (toward the halving ). Lets you dial capital protection precisely. Floored at 1 lot.
The shape of the risk
capital risk. The trade-off is , and r controls exactly how much of it you give up.
Run it over real history
This is the product's grid backtester, not a summary of one. It fetches public candles for the you pick, rebuilds the ladder on the first candle of the , then applies the engine's own fill, take-profit, and stop-loss rules bar by bar. The caveat block inside the is part of the output — read it before trusting a number.
Instrument
BTCUSD
delta-india
Geometric Decay · 10 levels @ 1% · target 1% · 100 USDT / level · 1× · long · no stop
What this does not model
- Exact intrabar ticks. Bullish/doji candles use open → low → high → close; bearish candles use open → high → low → close. Finer timeframes reduce sensitivity to this deterministic assumption.
- Queue position. Limit orders are assumed filled when touched, which flatters a maker grid in fast markets.
- Margin rejection and liquidation. Deep rungs fill here even if the account could not fund them — check the capital requirement.
- Slippage and funding. Only the fee you set above is charged; funding, borrow and slippage are absent.
Run the ladder over real history
The grid is rebuilt anchored on the first candle of the window, then the engine's own fill, exit, refill and stop-loss rules are applied bar by bar. You get the real fill sequence for this configuration on this instrument.
Measured against other modes
First the arithmetic, then the market. The below is computed from the size curves alone; the underneath replays every one of those ladders over the same real candle , with grid_mode as the only variable.
| Mode | Ladder cost | Deepest rung | Break-even bounce | Entry orders | Shallow cycle |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Geometric Decay (this mode) | 1.97× | 0.02× | 7.97% | 10 | 33.9 bps |
| Fixed | 10.0× | 1.00× | 5.00% | 10 | 10.0 bps |
| Square-Root Decay | 4.32× | 0.30× | 5.85% | 10 | 16.4 bps |
| Exponential Decay | 1.00× | 0.00× | 8.90% | 10 | 50.0 bps |
| Linear Martingale | 55.0× | 10.0× | 2.38% | 55 | 1.8 bps |
Nothing is precomputed here. Press run and the backtester fetches one candle window and replays 5 ladders across it — identical settings, identical bars, grid_mode as the only difference.
When to use it
- Trends where you want a precise, tunable de-risking .
- You need the worst case to be a closed-form number at any depth.
When to avoid it
- You want the deepest rungs to carry real size.
- The configuration will be edited without re-reading what r does to .
Tuning
- r = 1.1–1.3 keeps a real ladder; r ≥ 1.8 is effectively halving decay with extra steps.
- Because cost is bounded, depth is the cheap dial and r is the meaningful one.
This is parametric. The and the settings show only the dial(s) it actually uses, and changing one is a structural — the resting ladder is cancelled and re-placed at the new sizes.
Running it in production
- Watch how quickly executed size hits the one-lot — beyond that extra levels add coverage but almost no averaging.
- Track realised cycles per day. Decay curves earn from frequency, so a falling cycle count is the signal that the market has left the .
- Check the gap between average entry and . Decay curves keep it wide by design, so recovery expectations must be set from it, not from hope.
How it fails
- 1Over-taperingA high r collapses the ladder to the opening position plus a rounding error, which is rarely the intent.
- 2Floor interactionThe truncates the taper wherever it lands, so two different r values can produce the same ladder. Verify in the .
Claims worth correcting
“Bounded cost means bounded loss.”
The ladder cost is bounded; the loss depends on how far price travels against the position you did open. A stop is still the only bound on the latter.
Interaction with the rest of the configuration
- Spread sets how fast the ladder consumes depth. Widening it buys coverage for the same level count at the cost of fewer .
- Target sets what each cycle books. Below -trip fees plus slippage, a grid is a fee generator regardless of the .
- The is the only bound on the tail. Without it, the 's worst case is whatever the market does, not what you planned.
Questions this mode raises
- 1What is the total cost formula?base × r/(r − 1) in the limit — so r = 1.5 caps the whole ladder at about three base lots no matter how many levels you add.
Where these numbers come from
- Sizes and capital:
levelMultiplier/gridModeCurveinlib/grid/gridModes.ts, fromgrid_modes.hppand the Python engine's lot calculator. - Rung and exit prices, , init targets and the stop line:
buildLadderPlan— the same builder the and use. - Backtest , cycles and P&L:
runBacktest/runBacktestSweepover public broker candles, applying the engine's fill, exit, and stop rules. - Price charts: the trading terminal's chart engine, with the ladder drawn through its own price-line API.
Related
- 1.Grid Modes — Overview — The full taxonomy and how to choose
- 2.Anti-Martingale family — What every curve in this family has in common
- 3.Capital Allocation — Sizing an account to a Geometric Decay ladder
- 4.Stop Loss — Bounding this curve's tail
- 5.Reading the Ladder Plan — Verifying the curve before deploying
- 6.Grid Structure — Levels, init batch and base size
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