Forecast

The Forecast tool projects potential future price paths from the current price level outward in three scenarios: bull case (upward), base case (continued trend), and bear case (downward). The result is a fan or cone shape that visualizes possible outcomes and their relative probabilities. The three-scenario structure is intuitive for both technical and fundamental analysts, providing a complete range of outcomes rather than a single-point prediction that is almost always wrong.

Forecasts can be based on statistical methods (standard deviation channels, regression lines), trend projection (extrapolation of recent slope), or manual scenario modeling (user-defined targets for each case). The cone widens as it extends forward, reflecting increasing uncertainty over time. This widening is a critical feature — it communicates visually that the further out you look, the less certain the projection becomes, which is more intellectually honest than a single price target.

The Forecast tool differs from the Projection tool by explicitly showing three labeled scenarios (bull, base, bear) rather than a single statistical confidence cone. This makes it more suitable for fundamental analysis integration, scenario planning, and client presentations where clear scenario labels are important. The Projection tool is better suited for purely technical, statistical projections where the focus is on confidence bands rather than scenario narratives.

The source length setting controls how many historical bars are used to calculate the trend and volatility parameters. A longer source length (20–50 bars) produces a more stable, slowly adapting forecast. A shorter source length (5–10 bars) makes the forecast respond quickly to recent price action but also makes it more noisy and prone to whipsaws. For most applications, 14–20 bars provides a good balance between stability and responsiveness.

1. 1
   Select Forecast

   Click the Forecast tool from the measurement toolbar.
2. 2
   Set the origin

   Click to place the anchor point at the current price level on the chart.
3. 3
   Set the projection horizon

   Drag forward (right) to set the primary time horizon for the projection.
4. 4
   Adjust the cone width

   Drag up or down from the projection line to set the bull and bear bounds relative to the base case.
5. 5
   Review the three scenarios

   The bull, base, and bear cases are displayed with distinct colors and labels.
6. 6
   Fine-tune parameters

   Adjust the method, confidence level, source length, and time horizon from settings.

The Forecast tool supports three projection methods, each suited to different analysis styles:

• Price target projection — project where a stock or currency may trade over a specific time horizon. The base case is the most likely path; bull and bear show the range of possibilities for contingency planning.
• Risk assessment — visualize bull and bear scenarios for risk assessment. If the bear case would cause a margin call or exceed your maximum drawdown threshold, reduce position size or add hedges before it happens.
• Fundamental integration — align the base case with earnings estimates or macro forecasts. If your fundamental analysis suggests 10% upside, set the base case to that level and use bull/bear for confidence bands around it.
• Statistical analysis — use sigma-based forecasts for quantitatively-grounded projections. The cone shows statistical confidence intervals (68% for 1 sigma, 95% for 2 sigma) for price outcomes over time.
• Client presentations — present trade ideas to clients or teams with clearly visualized scenarios. The bull/base/bear structure is widely understood by all market participants.
• Earnings preview — project expected price ranges before an earnings release. Compare the forecast cone with options-implied volatility to identify potential mispricings in the options market.
• Volatility regime analysis — compare current forecast cone width to historical averages. A cone that is significantly wider than normal suggests elevated uncertainty and may warrant reduced exposure across all positions.

The trend projection method is best for swing trading on daily charts where recent price momentum is the primary driver. It assumes the current slope continues, which is reasonable over short horizons of 5–20 bars but breaks down over longer periods. The statistical method is best for systematic traders who want a probability-based framework — the sigma levels have clear mathematical interpretations that support structured position sizing.

The manual method is best for scenarios where you have fundamental or macroeconomic views that override the purely technical projection. For example, if you expect an earnings beat to push the stock 15% higher regardless of recent trend, manually set the bull case at +15% and the base and bear cases around it. The manual method gives you full control over all three scenario levels, making it ideal for integrating fundamental analysis with technical charting.

• 1.Forecast tool guide — TradingView Help
• 2.The Art of Currency Trading — Brent Donnelly
• 3.Technical Analysis of Financial Markets — John J. Murphy
• 4.Cybernetic Analysis for Stocks and Futures — John F. Ehlers
• 5.The Profit Magic of Stock Transaction Timing — J.M. Hurst
• 6.Scenario Analysis in Trading — Risk management reference