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Lesson 6/12/Risk & Capital/Portfolio & Margin Math/Correlation & Tail Hedging13 min

Total Portfolio Heat Ceilings & Parametric Value-at-Risk (VaR)

Risk & Capital

Capping simultaneous open stop-loss risk (Portfolio Heat) at 5%–6% of equity across all open positions.

Key Topics & Tags
portfolio heatvalue at riskvaropen riskexposure limit

Core Architecture & Intuition

Capping simultaneous open stop-loss risk (Portfolio Heat) at 5%–6% of equity across all open positions. Within the Risk & Capital curriculum (Portfolio & Margin Math → Correlation & Tail Hedging), this topic establishes the concrete quantitative rules and execution mechanics required for live market deployment.

Professional desks never rely on ambiguous visual guesses for portfolio heat. Instead, every entry, invalidation level, and risk parameter is defined mathematically before a single order reaches the exchange gateway.

Hover over key terms below for instant definitions: Portfolio Heat, Value At Risk, and Var. For the complete mathematical derivation and edge-case analysis, open .

Half-Kelly (Optimal Live Sizing)1.0x Full Kelly PeakOver-Leverage RegimeHigher variance · Lower geometric growthPosition Risk Fraction (f%) vs. Long-Run Geometric Compounding Growth Rate (G)
Visual architecture for Total Portfolio Heat Ceilings & Parametric Value-at-Risk (VaR) (Risk & Capital / Portfolio & Margin Math / Correlation & Tail Hedging).
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Pro tip:Always validate portfolio heat on closed bars and include realistic round-trip slippage + statutory taxes before deploying live capital.

Interactive Concept Breakdown

  • Portfolio Heat — Core structural driver governing total portfolio heat ceilings & parametric value-at-risk (var).
  • Value At Risk — Prevents premature entries and enforces mechanical discipline across Correlation & Tail Hedging.
  • Var — Ensures worst-case scenario losses stay strictly within predetermined R-multiple budgets.

Step-by-Step Execution Protocol: Correlation & Tail Hedging

  1. 1
    1. Pre-Session Calibration & Regime Check
    Measure baseline volatility and liquidity parameters for portfolio heat prior to market open.
  2. 2
    2. Mechanical Signal Confirmation
    Wait for a completed bar close confirming the value at risk threshold—never pre-empt mid-candle.
  3. 3
    3. Risk-Normalized Sizing & Order Placement
    Compute exact lot quantity from the invalidation distance and dispatch via a Marketable Limit order.
  4. 4
    4. Post-Trade Telemetry & Audit
    Log arrival price, fill slippage, and MAE/MFE metrics against the Correlation & Tail Hedging benchmark.

Parameters, Rules & Reference Matrix

Parameter / RuleTypeDefaultDescription
primaryThreshold*floatCalibrated per ATRCore quantitative trigger governing Total Portfolio Heat Ceilings & Parametric Value-at-Risk (VaR).
confirmationWindowbars1 closed barRequires full bar closure to eliminate intrabar repainting.
maxRiskAllocation% equity0.5% - 1.0%Maximum capital at risk if invalidation level is hit.

Implementation & Quantitative Model

portfolio-heat.ts
export function calcPortfolioHeatPct(openRiskRupees: number[], equity: number, maxHeatPct = 6.0) {  const totalRisk = openRiskRupees.reduce((s, r) => s + r, 0);  const heatPct = (totalRisk / Math.max(1, equity)) * 100;  return { heatPct: Number(heatPct.toFixed(2)), canOpenMore: heatPct < maxHeatPct };}

Desk Verification Checklist

Confirm before deploying live capital

  • Confirm Correlation & Tail Hedging regime alignment before enabling entries.
  • Verify candle closure beyond the trigger threshold (no intra-bar guessing).
  • Size position strictly from the distance to the structural invalidation point.

Cross-reference standard risk definitions such as drawdown, slippage, and when auditing your logs.

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